In this month’s Market Commentary, our Chief Investment Officer Ken Frier
derives a data-driven forecast for the U.S. stock index return over the next ten years. Using long-term trends in
earnings, valuation multiples, GDP growth, and inflation, Ken shows why the S&P 500 may deliver just
3.4% per year—well below what most investors expect or need.

Learn how factors like P/E reversion and slowing labor force growth could shape the next decade of equity returns—and
why Treasury yields near 4% might offer a more attractive balance of risk and reward.

Topics covered:

Components of historical S&P 500 performance (1955–2025)
The relationship between economic growth and earnings growth
The role of valuation multiples in long-term returns
A breakdown of expected return components: earnings, dividends, inflation, and valuation changes

Watch to understand what could make the next ten years very different from the last.